TJX Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±4.0% Move
· The NYC Memo · TJX reports 2026-08-19
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) reports August 19, 2026. The August 21, 2026 straddle implies ±4.04% against a 2.38% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $152.5.
Live updates
Aug 19 — The implied move for TJX earnings on August 19, 2026 tightened from 4.58% to 4.04%, implying less expected volatility, while net dealer gamma shifted from $-1 million to $34 million and put/call open interest dropped from 1.09 to 0.35.
Aug 18 — Ahead of TJX earnings on August 19, 2026, ATM implied volatility rose from 52.0% to 54.2%, while max pain shifted from $155 to $152.5, implying a potential 4.58% price move for the stock.
Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 46.2% to 52.0%; put/call open interest 0.88 to 1.06. The straddle now prices ±4.48% with TJX at $152.11 and dealers short gamma.
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) is set to report its Q2 2027 earnings on August 19, 2026, before the market open. Analysts estimate earnings per share at $1.20 and revenue at $15.3bn. The current spot price for TJX is $150.85, reflecting a -11.3% decline from its 52-week high and a -3.1% drop over the past month. Options traders are pricing in an implied move of 4.04% around this earnings event, leading to an implied range of $144.76 to $156.94 for the August 21, 2026 expiry.
This anticipated move of 4.04% is higher than the average realised reaction of 2.38% observed over 7 past earnings prints. Historically, TJX has moved higher 6 times and lower 1 time following these reports. Dealer positioning shows a lean towards long gamma, suggesting that options market makers may absorb directional price swings, potentially dampening volatility immediately after the announcement.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation | Whisper |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.18 | +1.31% (Zacks ESP) |
| Revenue | $15.14B | in line |
Adjusted EPS. Zacks Consensus Estimate ($1.18) vs. Most Accurate Estimate ($1.20) suggests a likely beat; unit: Adjusted EPS.
Revenue. Reflects an expected 5.1% year-over-year increase.
On August 19, 2026, the market will scrutinize TJX Companies' Q2 2027 results, focusing on whether the company meets or exceeds Street expectations for Adjusted EPS of $1.18 and Revenue of $15.14B. Investors will be observing demand trends across its store banners, looking for insights into consumer spending habits and traffic. Key operating drivers include any signs of margin expansion or contraction and how the company is managing cost pressures in the current environment. Crucially, attention will turn to the full-year guidance provided, which will shape expectations for future performance and any specific company initiatives impacting the outlook.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| August 19, 2026, Before Open | |
| Expiry used | August 21, 2026 (2 days out) |
| Spot | $150.85 |
| ATM straddle | $6.10 |
| Implied move | ±4.04% ($144.76 to $156.94) |
| ATM implied vol | 55.5% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.35 |
| Max pain | $152.5 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$34mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $152.5 (27,079 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $150 (3,796 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $1.20 |
| Street revenue estimate | $15.34bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress TJX between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, May 20 | +4.50% |
| Q4 2025, Feb 25 | +0.65% |
| Q3 2025, Nov 19 | +1.71% |
| Q2 2025, May 21 | -3.97% |
| Q1 2025, Feb 26 | +0.64% |
| Q4 2024, Nov 20 | +0.18% |
| Q3 2024, Aug 21 | +5.02% |
Across the last 7 prints the average absolute reaction is 2.38%, with 6 higher and 1 lower. The best was +5.02% and the worst -3.97%. Options are asking ±4.04%, which is 1.66 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $150.85 |
| 52-week range | $134.75 to $170.00 |
| Position in that range | 46% |
| From the 52-week high | -11.3% |
| From the 52-week low | +11.9% |
| Past week | -3.1% |
| Past month | -3.1% |
| Past three months | +0.4% |
| 50-day average | $157.35 |
| 200-day average | $155.22 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $140 put, Sep 18 | 7,052 contracts | oi zscore, 42.7 sigma |
| $140 put, Aug 21 | 1,029 contracts | oi zscore, 15.2 sigma |
| $140 put, Sep 18 | 1,339 contracts | vol oi, 4.4 sigma |
| $140 put, Aug 21 | 267 contracts | vol oi, 3.2 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
The trade framing
Buying the straddle needs TJX to clear $156.94 or break $144.76 to pay. Selling it collects $6.10 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 56% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $144.76 and $156.94 or a debit spread pointed at $152.5, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for TJX before the print.
Data as of August 19, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: TJX options memo