HD Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±4.4% Move
· The NYC Memo · HD reports 2026-08-18
Home Depot, Inc. (The) reports August 18, 2026. The August 21, 2026 straddle implies ±4.42% against a 1.76% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $340.
Live updates
Aug 18 — Ahead of HD earnings on August 18, 2026, ATM implied volatility rose from 47.2% to 49.6%, indicating an increased expected move of 4.42%. Net dealer gamma moved from $0mn to $15mn, with put/call open interest also increasing from 0.77 to 0.92.
Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 41.5% to 47.2%. The straddle now prices ±4.31% with HD at $338.86 and dealers long gamma.
Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) is scheduled to report its Q2 2027 earnings before the market opens on August 18, 2026. Analysts expect an EPS of $4.88 and revenue of $48.7bn. With the stock trading at $337.88, the options market is currently pricing a 4.42% implied move, suggesting an implied range between $322.95 to $352.81 for the August 21, 2026 expiry.
This anticipated move is notably higher than the average realised reaction of 1.76% from the past five prints. Dealer positioning shows a lean towards long gamma, indicating that the market may experience increased volatility around the earnings release. The put/call open interest ratio stands at 0.92, while max pain is identified at $340.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation |
|---|---|
| US comparable sales | flat to +2.0% |
US comparable sales. Aligns with reaffirmed FY2026 guidance; market recovery scenario envisions +4% to +5%.
On August 18, 2026, the market will scrutinize Home Depot's Q2 2027 results for signs of demand trends in the housing and home improvement sectors. Investors will closely watch operating margin performance and any commentary on cost pressures, as these factors directly impact profitability. Crucially, the market will assess the company's outlook for the remainder of the year. Street expectations for US comparable sales are flat to +2.0%, and how HD performs against this range will be a significant driver of market reaction. Any company-specific updates on strategic initiatives or competitive dynamics will also inform trader sentiment.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| August 18, 2026, Before Open | |
| Expiry used | August 21, 2026 (3 days out) |
| Spot | $337.88 |
| ATM straddle | $14.94 |
| Implied move | ±4.42% ($322.95 to $352.81) |
| ATM implied vol | 49.6% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.92 |
| Max pain | $340 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$15mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $360 (2,793 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $325 (2,925 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $4.88 |
| Street revenue estimate | $48.69bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress HD between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, May 19 | +3.59% |
| Q4 2025, Feb 24 | -0.38% |
| Q2 2025, May 20 | -2.25% |
| Q1 2025, Feb 25 | +2.11% |
| Q4 2024, Nov 12 | +0.47% |
Across the last 5 prints the average absolute reaction is 1.76%, with 3 higher and 2 lower. The best was +3.59% and the worst -2.25%. Options are asking ±4.42%, which is 2.66 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $337.88 |
| 52-week range | $289.10 to $426.75 |
| Position in that range | 35% |
| From the 52-week high | -20.8% |
| From the 52-week low | +16.9% |
| Past week | -5.0% |
| Past month | -2.9% |
| Past three months | +11.0% |
| 50-day average | $337.70 |
| 200-day average | $347.10 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $315 put, Sep 18 | 1,853 contracts | oi zscore, 31.4 sigma |
| $320 put, Aug 21 | 2,608 contracts | oi zscore, 15.0 sigma |
| $357.5 call, Aug 21 | 883 contracts | oi zscore, 14.1 sigma |
| $362.5 call, Aug 21 | 775 contracts | oi zscore, 12.2 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
The trade framing
Buying the straddle needs HD to clear $352.81 or break $322.95 to pay. Selling it collects $14.94 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 50% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $322.95 and $352.81 or a debit spread pointed at $360, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for HD before the print.
Data as of August 18, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: HD options memo