ADI Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±6.5% Move
· The NYC Memo · ADI reports 2026-08-19
Analog Devices, Inc. reports August 19, 2026. The August 21, 2026 straddle implies ±6.46% against a 5.27% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $382.5.
Live updates
Aug 19 — ADI's implied move into its August 19, 2026 earnings rose from ±6.21% to ±6.46%, suggesting increased volatility, with ATM implied vol moving from 78.1% to 91.1% and spot dropping from $390.28 to $376.63.
Aug 18 — ADI's August 19, 2026 earnings saw the implied move decrease to ±6.21% from ±6.54% and ATM implied volatility rise to 78.1% from 70.4%, while max pain shifted to $385 from $382.5 and net dealer gamma is now $-5.44 million from $5 million, indicating potential for higher price volatility.
Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 62.2% to 70.4%; max pain $380 to $382.5; put/call open interest 1.25 to 1.10. The straddle now prices ±6.54% with ADI at $389.39 and dealers long gamma.
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is scheduled to report its Q3 2026 earnings on August 19, 2026, before the open. Analysts forecast earnings per share at $3.37 on revenue of $4.0bn. The options market, using the August 21, 2026 expiry, implies a price move of 6.46% by the end of the week, suggesting a trading range of $352.30 to $400.96. This implied move is slightly higher than the average realised reaction of 5.27% over seven previous earnings prints.
With the current spot price at $376.63, options dealers are positioned long gamma. This dealer lean often suggests that market makers will act as price stabilizers into the print, buying dips and selling rallies. Out of the seven past earnings events, the stock has moved higher three times and lower four times. The put/call open interest ratio stands at 1.24.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.37 |
| Revenue | $3.96B |
Adjusted EPS. Adjusted EPS; consensus reflects a 64.30% year-over-year growth estimate.
Revenue. Represents the mean estimate from 26 analysts; company guidance range is $3.8B - $4.0B.
On August 19, 2026, the market will closely examine Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Q3 2026 results. Street expectations for Adjusted EPS are $3.37 and for Revenue are $3.96B. Investors will focus on the demand trend across key segments and any indications of margin and cost pressure. The company's guidance for the rest of the year will be crucial for assessing future performance. Any specific commentary regarding inventory levels or new product cycles will also inform trading decisions.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| August 19, 2026, Before Open | |
| Expiry used | August 21, 2026 (2 days out) |
| Spot | $376.63 |
| ATM straddle | $24.32 |
| Implied move | ±6.46% ($352.30 to $400.96) |
| ATM implied vol | 91.1% |
| Put/call open interest | 1.24 |
| Max pain | $382.5 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$2mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $410 (1,318 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $360 (1,842 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $3.37 |
| Street revenue estimate | $3.96bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress ADI between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, May 20 | -7.27% |
| Q4 2025, Feb 18 | +2.31% |
| Q3 2025, Nov 25 | +7.74% |
| Q2 2025, May 22 | -5.29% |
| Q1 2025, Feb 19 | +10.72% |
| Q4 2024, Nov 26 | -2.87% |
| Q3 2024, Aug 21 | -0.71% |
Across the last 7 prints the average absolute reaction is 5.27%, with 3 higher and 4 lower. The best was +10.72% and the worst -7.27%. Options are asking ±6.46%, which is 1.19 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $376.63 |
| 52-week range | $223.47 to $445.91 |
| Position in that range | 69% |
| From the 52-week high | -15.5% |
| From the 52-week low | +68.5% |
| Past week | -2.3% |
| Past month | +1.1% |
| Past three months | -10.0% |
| 50-day average | $390.30 |
| 200-day average | $339.68 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $410 call, Aug 21 | 1,178 contracts | oi zscore, 18.9 sigma |
| $330 put, Sep 18 | 1,320 contracts | oi zscore, 18.9 sigma |
| $350 put, Aug 21 | 1,178 contracts | oi zscore, 14.8 sigma |
| $340 put, Aug 21 | 773 contracts | oi zscore, 11.5 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
The trade framing
Buying the straddle needs ADI to clear $400.96 or break $352.30 to pay. Selling it collects $24.32 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 91% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $352.30 and $400.96 or a debit spread pointed at $410, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for ADI before the print.
Data as of August 19, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: ADI options memo