NVDA Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±5.8% Move
· The NYC Memo · NVDA reports 2026-08-26
NVIDIA Corporation reports August 26, 2026. The August 28, 2026 straddle implies ±5.81% against a 5.39% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $212.5.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is set to report its Q2 2027 earnings on August 26, 2026, after close. Analysts estimate earnings per share at $2.13 and revenue at $93.6bn. With NVDA trading at $210.52, the options market, looking to the August 28, 2026 expiry, implies a move of 5.81%, establishing an implied range from $198.29 to $222.75. This is slightly above the average realised reaction of 5.39% from 8 past prints, which saw the stock move higher 3 times and lower 5 times.
The current straddle for the August 28, 2026 expiry is $12.24, with an ATM IV of 93.6%. Dealers are reportedly long gamma into this event, a positioning that suggests potential for dampened volatility or a reversal of price action following the initial post-earnings move. The max pain point for options traders is currently $212.5, with a put-call open interest ratio of 0.44.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation |
|---|---|
| Dc revenue | $41.34B |
| Hyperscaler pct | ~50% |
Dc revenue. Based on StreetAccount estimates for the quarter ending July 2026.
Hyperscaler pct. Company notes large cloud providers historically make up about half of data center business.
Investors will closely monitor NVIDIA's Q2 2027 earnings release on August 26, 2026. The market expects Data Center revenue of $41.34B, with Hyperscaler percentage contributing approximately ~50%. Key drivers for the stock reaction include the underlying demand trend for AI infrastructure, particularly from major cloud providers. Analysts will also scrutinize any commentary on margin pressures and operating costs. Guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year will be crucial, offering insight into future growth trajectories. The desk will also trade off any specific updates regarding new product cycles or competitive dynamics.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| August 26, 2026, After Close | |
| Expiry used | August 28, 2026 (2 days out) |
| Spot | $210.52 |
| ATM straddle | $12.24 |
| Implied move | ±5.81% ($198.29 to $222.75) |
| ATM implied vol | 93.6% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.44 |
| Max pain | $212.5 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$321mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $230 (194,582 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $200 (36,789 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $2.13 |
| Street revenue estimate | $93.63bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress NVDA between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, May 20 | -0.50% |
| Q4 2025, Feb 25 | -4.13% |
| Q3 2025, Nov 19 | -0.40% |
| Q2 2025, May 28 | +2.72% |
| Q1 2025, Feb 26 | -5.12% |
| Q3 2024, Aug 28 | -8.35% |
| Q2 2024, May 22 | +8.82% |
| Q1 2024, Feb 21 | +13.08% |
Across the last 8 prints the average absolute reaction is 5.39%, with 3 higher and 5 lower. The best was +13.08% and the worst -8.35%. Options are asking ±5.81%, which is 0.42 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $210.52 |
| 52-week range | $164.07 to $236.54 |
| Position in that range | 64% |
| From the 52-week high | -11.0% |
| From the 52-week low | +28.3% |
| Past week | -3.2% |
| Past month | +6.8% |
| Past three months | -1.0% |
| 50-day average | $207.77 |
| 200-day average | $195.54 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $232.5 call, Aug 19 | 9,678 contracts | oi zscore, 99.0 sigma |
| $200 put, Aug 19 | 6,746 contracts | oi zscore, 80.6 sigma |
| $205 put, Aug 24 | 4,465 contracts | oi zscore, 79.5 sigma |
| $237.5 call, Aug 21 | 17,539 contracts | oi zscore, 66.9 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
The trade framing
Buying the straddle needs NVDA to clear $222.75 or break $198.29 to pay. Selling it collects $12.24 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 94% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $198.29 and $222.75 or a debit spread pointed at $230, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for NVDA before the print.
Data as of August 26, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: NVDA options memo