AVGO Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±8.1% Move
· The NYC Memo · AVGO reports 2026-09-02
Broadcom Inc. reports September 2, 2026. The September 4, 2026 straddle implies ±8.11% against a 10.41% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $370.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) will report its Q3 2026 earnings on September 2, 2026, after close. Options market participants are looking for a significant move, with the September 4, 2026 expiry straddle at $29.91 indicating an implied move of 8.11%. This suggests an implied range of $338.88 to $398.70 for the stock from its current spot price of $368.79. This expectation is slightly lower than the average realised reaction of 10.41% over the past 7 prints.
The options market also shows a put/call open interest ratio of 0.68, with maximum pain set at $370. Dealers are positioned long gamma, which typically implies that they will sell into strength and buy into weakness following the announcement. This positioning suggests that options dealers may dampen volatility immediately after the earnings release.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation |
|---|---|
| Ai revenue | $16.0B |
| Software pct | ~32.4% |
Ai revenue. Management guided for AI revenue to triple to $16B for the upcoming fiscal quarter.
Software pct. Based on infrastructure software revenue estimates of $7.32B vs. total revenue estimates of $22.58B ($29.4B guidance / $28.53B Street average).
On September 2, 2026, Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 2026 results will attract significant market attention, focusing on whether the company meets Street expectations. Analysts will scrutinize AI revenue, projected at $16.0B, as a key indicator of demand trends within its semiconductor segments. The software division's performance, with Software pct expected around 32.4%, will also be closely watched for margin and cost pressures. Investors will analyze the forward guidance for the rest of the year, seeking clarity on overall growth trajectory. Any company-specific developments, particularly regarding integration efforts or strategic initiatives, will also influence market reaction.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| September 2, 2026, After Close | |
| Expiry used | September 4, 2026 (4 days out) |
| Spot | $368.79 |
| ATM straddle | $29.91 |
| Implied move | ±8.11% ($338.88 to $398.70) |
| ATM implied vol | 89.6% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.68 |
| Max pain | $370 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$21mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $370 (11,371 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $340 (6,058 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $3.30 |
| Street revenue estimate | $29.95bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress AVGO between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, Jun 3 | -13.01% |
| Q4 2025, Mar 4 | +6.03% |
| Q3 2025, Dec 11 | -12.84% |
| Q2 2025, Jun 5 | -5.42% |
| Q1 2025, Mar 6 | +1.76% |
| Q4 2024, Dec 12 | +22.71% |
| Q3 2024, Sep 5 | -11.11% |
Across the last 7 prints the average absolute reaction is 10.41%, with 3 higher and 4 lower. The best was +22.71% and the worst -13.01%. Options are asking ±8.11%, which is 2.30 points cheaper than the realised average, the premium buyer's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $368.79 |
| 52-week range | $287.17 to $495.00 |
| Position in that range | 39% |
| From the 52-week high | -25.5% |
| From the 52-week low | +28.4% |
| Past week | +0.1% |
| Past month | -4.9% |
| Past three months | -17.4% |
| 50-day average | $386.11 |
| 200-day average | $369.38 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $377.5 call, Aug 28 | 2,460 contracts | oi zscore, 40.1 sigma |
| $375 call, Sep 4 | 3,519 contracts | oi zscore, 39.0 sigma |
| $335 put, Sep 4 | 3,471 contracts | oi zscore, 22.2 sigma |
| $325 put, Aug 28 | 1,031 contracts | oi zscore, 11.3 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
How the options market is pricing it
The September 4, 2026 straddle marks $338.88 to $398.70 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 90% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically AVGO has moved 10.41% on earnings against the ±8.11% now implied, so the market is pricing this print cheaper than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for AVGO before the print.
Data as of August 31, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: AVGO options memo