NKE Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±8.8% Move
· The NYC Memo · NKE reports 2026-10-01
Nike, Inc. reports October 1, 2026. The October 2, 2026 straddle implies ±8.82% against a 9.75% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $36.5.
Live updates
Sep 28 — Ahead of October 1, 2026 earnings, Nike's implied move widened from ±8.22% to ±8.82% as at-the-money implied volatility rose from 71.0% to 102.7%, reflecting expectations of wider price swings while net dealer gamma shifted from -$1mn to $1mn.
Sep 25 — Ahead of earnings on September 28, 2026, Nike max pain declined from $37 to $36.5, implying that options expiration pinning has shifted lower toward the $35.99 spot price with an implied move of 8.22 percent.
Nike, Inc. (NKE) reports Q1 2027 earnings on October 1, 2026, after close, with spot at $36.39. Shares are down -5.3% over the past month and -52.7% from their high. The October 2, 2026 expiry prices a $3.21 straddle, implying an 8.82% move within an implied range of $33.18 to $39.60, with ATM IV at 102.6%. This asks for less volatility than the average realised reaction of 9.75% across 8 prints counted, where shares settled higher 2 times and lower 6 times.
The put to call open interest is 0.73, and max pain sits at $36.5. Dealers hold a long gamma lean. That positioning blunts directional momentum, helping pin the tape into the print.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.44 |
| Revenue | $11.33B |
Adjusted EPS. Analyst consensus for Nike fiscal Q1 2027; prior-year GAAP EPS was $0.49.
Revenue. Analyst consensus midpoint for Nike fiscal Q1 2027; prior-year revenue was $11.7B.
Nike reports first quarter earnings on October 1, 2026, against consensus estimates of Adjusted EPS $0.44 and Revenue $11.33B. The desk is tracking underlying consumer demand trends alongside wholesale partner order health. Traders will evaluate gross margin performance against promotional discounting and shipping cost pressures. Direct sales traction and inventory clearance progress will drive the immediate reaction following the release. Guidance for the rest of the year remains paramount, with options positioning heavily dependent on commentary regarding the product innovation pipeline and regional market momentum.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| October 1, 2026, After Close | |
| Expiry used | October 2, 2026 (4 days out) |
| Spot | $36.39 |
| ATM straddle | $3.21 |
| Implied move | ±8.82% ($33.18 to $39.60) |
| ATM implied vol | 102.6% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.73 |
| Max pain | $36.5 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$0.65mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $38 (5,673 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $35 (8,100 contracts) |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress NKE between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, Jun 23 | -3.17% |
| Q4 2025, Mar 31 | -12.90% |
| Q3 2025, Dec 18 | -10.63% |
| Q2 2025, Jun 26 | +18.43% |
| Q1 2025, Mar 20 | -6.92% |
| Q4 2024, Dec 19 | +0.05% |
| Q3 2024, Oct 1 | -6.00% |
| Q2 2024, Jun 27 | -19.87% |
Across the last 8 prints the average absolute reaction is 9.75%, with 2 higher and 6 lower. The best was +18.43% and the worst -19.87%. Options are asking ±8.82%, which is 0.93 points cheaper than the realised average, the premium buyer's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $36.39 |
| 52-week range | $35.22 to $76.97 |
| Position in that range | 3% |
| From the 52-week high | -52.7% |
| From the 52-week low | +3.3% |
| Past week | +0.8% |
| Past month | -5.3% |
| Past three months | -12.3% |
| 50-day average | $39.53 |
| 200-day average | $49.36 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $45 call, Sep 17 | 1,114 contracts | oi zscore, 16.3 sigma |
| $42.5 call, Sep 17 | 2,322 contracts | oi zscore, 11.8 sigma |
| $42 call, Oct 2 | 2,224 contracts | oi zscore, 6.3 sigma |
| $30 put, Jan 21 | 9,059 contracts | oi zscore, 6.0 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
How the options market is pricing it
The October 2, 2026 straddle marks $33.18 to $39.60 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 103% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically NKE has moved 9.75% on earnings against the ±8.82% now implied, so the market is pricing this print cheaper than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for NKE before the print.
Data as of September 28, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: NKE options memo