AEHR Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±12.7% Move
· The NYC Memo · AEHR reports 2026-10-05
Aehr Test Systems reports October 5, 2026. The October 9, 2026 straddle implies ±12.68% against a 20.82% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $94.
Aehr Test Systems reports on October 5, 2026, with spot at $99.62. The stock is +25.7% over the past month and -32.4% from its high. For the October 9, 2026 expiry, the straddle prices at $12.63, implying a move of 12.68% and a range of $86.99 to $112.25 with atm_iv at 100.1%. This trails the average realised reaction of 20.82% across 6 prints counted, which finished higher 4 times and lower 2 times.
Open interest shows a put_call_oi of 0.89 and max pain at $94. The dealer lean is long gamma. That posture prompts market makers to trade against momentum, dampening volatility and stabilizing the tape into the print.
What the market will be watching
The market will focus on silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in demand and customer concentration risks. Traders will evaluate order momentum from electric vehicle chipmakers alongside commentary regarding industrial adoption. Operating margin trends will show whether product mix shifts and input cost pressures are eroding profitability. Full-year guidance remains critical, as any adjustments to the forward outlook will dictate the post-earnings move. The desk will also watch for commercial progress in alternate applications such as silicon photonics to assess whether the business can diversify its revenue base.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| October 5, 2026 | |
| Expiry used | October 9, 2026 (8 days out) |
| Spot | $99.62 |
| ATM straddle | $12.63 |
| Implied move | ±12.68% ($86.99 to $112.25) |
| ATM implied vol | 100.1% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.89 |
| Max pain | $94 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$0.25mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $108 (210 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $94 (314 contracts) |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress AEHR between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026, Jul 14 | +29.06% |
| Q1 2026, Apr 7 | +21.09% |
| Q4 2025, Jan 8 | +8.85% |
| Q3 2025, Oct 6 | -15.70% |
| Q1 2025, Apr 8 | +21.33% |
| Q4 2024, Jan 13 | -28.86% |
Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 20.82%, with 4 higher and 2 lower. The best was +29.06% and the worst -28.86%. Options are asking ±12.68%, which is 8.14 points cheaper than the realised average, the premium buyer's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $99.62 |
| 52-week range | $18.70 to $147.40 |
| Position in that range | 63% |
| From the 52-week high | -32.4% |
| From the 52-week low | +432.7% |
| Past week | +2.3% |
| Past month | +25.7% |
| Past three months | +18.0% |
| 50-day average | $95.65 |
| 200-day average | $68.81 |
How the options market is pricing it
The October 9, 2026 straddle marks $86.99 to $112.25 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 100% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically AEHR has moved 20.82% on earnings against the ±12.68% now implied, so the market is pricing this print cheaper than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for AEHR before the print.
Data as of October 1, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: AEHR options memo