CELU Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±40.0% Move
· The NYC Memo · CELU reports 2026-10-02
Celularity Inc. reports October 2, 2026. The October 16, 2026 straddle implies ±40.00% against a 19.82% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $1.5.
Celularity Inc. reports on October 2, 2026, with the stock at $1.35 after falling -27.0% over the past month and -47.1% from its 52-week high. For the October 16, 2026 expiry, the $0.54 straddle prices an implied volatility of 196.7%, creating an implied move of 40.00% and an implied range of $0.81 to $1.89. That pricing demands more than the average realised reaction of 19.82% across 4 prints counted, which saw 3 higher and 1 lower.
Options open interest displays a put to call ratio of 0.13, with max pain at $1.5. Dealers hold a long gamma posture. This dealer lean dampens fluctuations, keeping the tape anchored into the print.
What the market will be watching
The options desk focuses on commercial uptake across Celularity's regenerative medicine portfolio to assess underlying demand trends. Traders will evaluate gross margins alongside manufacturing costs and research expenses, seeking signs of operational discipline. Updated forward guidance for the remainder of the year will set expectations for revenue trajectory and cash burn. Market participants also track regulatory milestones, clinical trial progress for pipeline cell therapies, and partnership developments. Any commentary regarding liquidity or runway extensions will heavily influence post-earnings implied volatility and directional positioning.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| October 2, 2026 | |
| Expiry used | October 16, 2026 (15 days out) |
| Spot | $1.35 |
| ATM straddle | $0.54 |
| Implied move | ±40.00% ($0.81 to $1.89) |
| ATM implied vol | 196.7% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.13 |
| Max pain | $1.5 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$0.00mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $2 (368 contracts) |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress CELU between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025, Feb 17 | +17.00% |
| Q3 2025, Nov 17 | +12.26% |
| Q2 2025, Jul 17 | +41.59% |
| Q1 2025, May 9 | -8.43% |
Across the last 4 prints the average absolute reaction is 19.82%, with 3 higher and 1 lower. The best was +41.59% and the worst -8.43%. Options are asking ±40.00%, which is 20.18 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $1.35 |
| 52-week range | $0.56 to $2.55 |
| Position in that range | 40% |
| From the 52-week high | -47.1% |
| From the 52-week low | +141.1% |
| Past week | +17.4% |
| Past month | -27.0% |
| Past three months | +123.5% |
| 50-day average | $1.09 |
| 200-day average | $1.09 |
How the options market is pricing it
The October 16, 2026 straddle marks $0.81 to $1.89 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 197% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically CELU has moved 19.82% on earnings against the ±40.00% now implied, so the market is pricing this print richer than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for CELU before the print.
Data as of October 1, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: CELU options memo