KMX Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±13.2% Move
· The NYC Memo · KMX reports 2026-09-29
CarMax Inc reports September 29, 2026. The October 16, 2026 straddle implies ±13.19% against a 10.68% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $55.
Live updates
Sep 29 — Heading into KMX earnings on September 29, 2026, the implied move expanded from ±12.60% to ±13.19%, pricing a wider post-earnings price swing as at-the-money implied volatility rose from 66.9% to 71.7%.
CarMax Inc reports Q2 2027 results on September 29, 2026, before open. The October 16, 2026 straddle costs $7.46 against spot at $56.55. Options price an implied move of 13.19% and an implied range of $49.09 to $64.01. That demands more volatility than the average realised reaction of 10.68% recorded across 6 prints counted, which finished higher 3 times and lower 3 times.
Into the print, max pain sits at $55 with put_call_oi at 0.78, and the dealer lean is long gamma. This positioning obligates market makers to buy dips and sell rips. The resulting flow buffers volatility and helps pin the underlying tape ahead of the quarterly earnings release.
What the market will be watching
The market focuses on retail used vehicle demand and consumer affordability when CarMax reports earnings. Traders will evaluate gross profit per unit across retail and wholesale channels alongside vehicle acquisition costs. Operational expense discipline and selling cost leverage remain central to operating margins. The desk watches CarMax Auto Finance metrics closely, specifically loan loss provisions and portfolio credit performance, as borrowing conditions affect customer purchasing power. Management commentary on seasonal sales trends and updated outlook for the remainder of the year will determine post-earnings positioning.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| September 29, 2026, Before Open | |
| Expiry used | October 16, 2026 (17 days out) |
| Spot | $56.55 |
| ATM straddle | $7.46 |
| Implied move | ±13.19% ($49.09 to $64.01) |
| ATM implied vol | 71.7% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.78 |
| Max pain | $55 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$0.73mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $70 (7,046 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $47.5 (2,802 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $0.72 |
| Street revenue estimate | $7.05bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress KMX between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, Apr 14 | -17.46% |
| Q4 2025, Dec 23 | +2.70% |
| Q3 2025, Sep 25 | -21.37% |
| Q2 2025, Jun 20 | +4.41% |
| Q1 2025, Apr 10 | -14.61% |
| Q4 2024, Dec 19 | +3.50% |
Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 10.68%, with 3 higher and 3 lower. The best was +4.41% and the worst -21.37%. Options are asking ±13.19%, which is 2.51 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $56.55 |
| 52-week range | $30.26 to $65.28 |
| Position in that range | 75% |
| From the 52-week high | -13.4% |
| From the 52-week low | +86.9% |
| Past week | -2.3% |
| Past month | -9.7% |
| Past three months | +6.4% |
| 50-day average | $59.38 |
| 200-day average | $47.89 |
How the options market is pricing it
The October 16, 2026 straddle marks $49.09 to $64.01 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 72% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically KMX has moved 10.68% on earnings against the ±13.19% now implied, so the market is pricing this print richer than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for KMX before the print.
Data as of September 29, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: KMX options memo