COST Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±3.4% Move
· The NYC Memo · COST reports 2026-09-24
Costco Wholesale Corporation reports September 24, 2026. The September 25, 2026 straddle implies ±3.40% against a 2.08% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $905.
Live updates
Sep 24 — Ahead of September 24, 2026 earnings, the Costco implied move expanded from plus or minus 3.11% to 3.40% alongside a rise in implied volatility from 47.6% to 65.0%, implying higher expected price variance while net dealer gamma shifted from $-15mn to $2mn.
Sep 23 — Ahead of Costco earnings on September 24, 2026, at-the-money implied volatility rose from 40.5% to 47.6%, which implies a 3.11% move with dealers holding short gamma against an 899.41 spot price.
Sep 22 — Ahead of Costco earnings on September 24, 2026, the implied move compressed from ±3.61% to ±3.21%, signaling tempered post-earnings volatility expectations as net dealer gamma tightened from $-30mn to $-13mn and max pain declined to $910.
Costco Wholesale Corporation reports Q4 2026 results on September 24, 2026, after close, with spot at $904.70. For the September 25, 2026 expiry, the straddle trades at $30.75. This implies a move of 3.40% and a range of $873.94 to $935.46, with volatility at 65.0%. The options market demands more movement than recent tape history delivers. Over 6 prints counted, the average realised reaction is 2.08%, with the stock moving higher 2 times and lower 4 times.
Dealer positioning reflects a long gamma lean, while put to call open interest is 1.08. That profile tends to compress price swings and pull trading toward max pain at $905 into the print.
What the market will be watching
| Line | Street expectation |
|---|---|
| Cardholders | 83.7M |
| Monthly comps | 8.1% |
Cardholders. Zacks Consensus Estimate for total paid members
Monthly comps. Zacks Consensus Estimate for total company comparable sales growth
The options desk focuses on Costco Wholesale Corporation reporting Q4 2026 results on September 24, 2026. The market expects Cardholders 83.7M and Monthly comps 8.1%. Traders will scrutinize whether foot traffic sustains demand against broader consumer softness. Operating margins face pressure from wage expenses and freight costs, while inventory management dictates merchandise profitability. Forward guidance will drive directional positioning for the remainder of the year. Membership renewal rates and discretionary merchandise volumes remain the key company-specific catalysts shaping the options reaction following the release.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| September 24, 2026, After Close | |
| Expiry used | September 25, 2026 (1 days out) |
| Spot | $904.70 |
| ATM straddle | $30.75 |
| Implied move | ±3.40% ($873.94 to $935.46) |
| ATM implied vol | 65.0% |
| Put/call open interest | 1.08 |
| Max pain | $905 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$2mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $945 (1,361 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $890 (1,391 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $6.66 |
| Street revenue estimate | $96.76bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress COST between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, May 28 | -4.72% |
| Q4 2025, Mar 5 | -0.86% |
| Q3 2025, Dec 11 | +1.15% |
| Q2 2025, May 29 | +2.67% |
| Q4 2024, Dec 12 | -0.54% |
| Q3 2024, Sep 26 | -2.51% |
Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 2.08%, with 2 higher and 4 lower. The best was +2.67% and the worst -4.72%. Options are asking ±3.40%, which is 1.32 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $904.70 |
| 52-week range | $844.06 to $1096.50 |
| Position in that range | 24% |
| From the 52-week high | -17.5% |
| From the 52-week low | +7.2% |
| Past week | +0.4% |
| Past month | -4.5% |
| Past three months | -5.5% |
| 50-day average | $935.75 |
| 200-day average | $960.21 |
Unusual open interest
| Contract | Open interest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $600 put, Oct 9 | 199 contracts | vol oi, 2.2 sigma |
| $550 put, Oct 9 | 200 contracts | vol oi, 1.8 sigma |
Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.
How the options market is pricing it
The September 25, 2026 straddle marks $873.94 to $935.46 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 65% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically COST has moved 2.08% on earnings against the ±3.40% now implied, so the market is pricing this print richer than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for COST before the print.
Data as of September 24, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: COST options memo