FDS Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±9.2% Move
· The NYC Memo · FDS reports 2026-09-30
FactSet Research Systems Inc. reports September 30, 2026. The October 16, 2026 straddle implies ±9.17% against a 4.71% average reaction, with dealers short gamma and max pain at $280.
Live updates
Sep 30 — Ahead of September 30 earnings, the FDS implied move contracted from ±10.16% to ±9.17% as spot fell to $259.97, signaling that traders anticipate a smaller post-earnings price swing as at-the-money implied volatility eased from 57.9% to 51.8%.
Sep 29 — Ahead of September 30, 2026 earnings, FDS max pain fell from $300 to $280 while put/call open interest declined from 3.44 to 2.71, implying lower strike gravitation alongside softening downside hedging near the $267.67 spot.
Sep 28 — Ahead of earnings on September 30, 2026, FDS spot fell from $273.08 to $267.67 as the implied move compressed from ±10.99% to ±10.16%, which implies options traders are pricing in a narrower post-announcement price reaction.
FactSet Research Systems Inc. reports Q4 2026 earnings on September 30, 2026, before open. FDS trades at $259.97. For the October 16, 2026 expiry, the $23.83 straddle with atm iv at 51.8% prices an implied move of 9.17%, defining an implied range of $236.13 to $283.81. That requirement substantially exceeds the average realised reaction of 4.71% across 6 prints counted, which saw 4 higher and 2 lower.
Desk positioning reflects a short gamma dealer lean alongside a put call oi of 2.25 and max pain at $280. This short gamma exposure forces market makers to sell into weakness and buy into strength, amplifying volatility on the tape into the print.
What the market will be watching
The desk enters earnings watching whether workstation demand holds steady across buy-side and sell-side clients. Traders will scrutinize annual subscription value trends for signals of corporate budget cuts or lengthening sales cycles. Margin performance will hinge on balancing technology investments against operating expense discipline. Forward guidance will dictate the immediate options reaction, particularly expectations for client retention and pricing power. The desk also monitors workflow tool adoption and institutional user churn as the primary tactical swing factors.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| September 30, 2026, Before Open | |
| Expiry used | October 16, 2026 (16 days out) |
| Spot | $259.97 |
| ATM straddle | $23.83 |
| Implied move | ±9.17% ($236.13 to $283.81) |
| ATM implied vol | 51.8% |
| Put/call open interest | 2.25 |
| Max pain | $280 |
| Net dealer gamma | -$2mn per 1% move, SHORT GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $350 (540 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $250 (1,087 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $4.38 |
| Street revenue estimate | $0.64bn |
Dealers sit short gamma into the print, so their hedging chases direction. A surprise in either tail gets amplified rather than absorbed.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, Jul 1 | +8.70% |
| Q4 2025, Mar 31 | +9.93% |
| Q3 2025, Dec 18 | -2.56% |
| Q2 2025, Jun 23 | +3.61% |
| Q1 2025, Mar 20 | -1.26% |
| Q4 2024, Dec 19 | +2.21% |
Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 4.71%, with 4 higher and 2 lower. The best was +9.93% and the worst -2.56%. Options are asking ±9.17%, which is 4.46 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $259.97 |
| 52-week range | $185.00 to $320.48 |
| Position in that range | 55% |
| From the 52-week high | -18.9% |
| From the 52-week low | +40.5% |
| Past week | -6.0% |
| Past month | -15.9% |
| Past three months | +13.0% |
| 50-day average | $281.06 |
| 200-day average | $249.40 |
RSI reads 66, state neutral, bearish divergence on the daily, regime uptrend.
How the options market is pricing it
The October 16, 2026 straddle marks $236.13 to $283.81 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 52% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically FDS has moved 4.71% on earnings against the ±9.17% now implied, so the market is pricing this print richer than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for FDS before the print.
Data as of September 30, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: FDS options memo