FDX Earnings Preview: Options Price a ±2.2% Move
· The NYC Memo · FDX reports 2026-09-16
FedEx Corporation reports September 16, 2026. The September 18, 2026 straddle implies ±2.21% against a 5.35% average reaction, with dealers long gamma and max pain at $320.
Live updates
Sep 16 — Ahead of earnings on September 16, 2026, the FDX implied move narrowed from ±2.81% to ±2.21% while implied volatility rose from 32.3% to 50.8% and max pain dropped from $325 to $320, implying a more restrained post-earnings price swing.
Sep 15 — Ahead of September 16, 2026 earnings, FDX max pain fell from $330 to $325, put/call open interest rose from 0.60 to 0.72, and net dealer gamma flipped from $-4mn to $1mn, implying stabilizing dealer positioning around a 2.81 percent implied move.
Sep 14 — Ahead of September 16, 2026 earnings, FDX implied volatility rose from 29.8% to 34.1%, max pain rose from $320 to $330, and net dealer gamma fell from $3mn to $-4mn, positioning dealers to amplify the 2.89% implied move.
FedEx Corporation reports Q1 2027 earnings on September 16, 2026, with spot at $308.26. The September 18, 2026 straddle of $6.82 implies a 2.21% move, framing an implied range of $301.45 to $315.07. That pricing sits well below realised history. Across the 6 prints counted, the average realised reaction is 5.35%, split between 3 higher and 3 lower outcomes.
Dealers maintain a long gamma lean into the print. This positioning dampens volatility and steadies the tape as market makers hedge against price swings. Max pain sits at $320, while the put to call open interest is 0.68. Spot is -10.7% from its 52-week high and -7.9% over the past month.
What the market will be watching
FedEx Corporation reports first quarter earnings on September 16, 2026. The desk will focus on package volume trends across domestic ground and international express networks. Investors will evaluate how operational consolidation and structural cost reduction initiatives offset persistent labor inflation and fuel volatility. Margin performance across delivery segments will dictate the immediate post-earnings move. Traders will also watch management commentary regarding peak holiday season demand expectations and adjustments to full-year guidance. Progress on ongoing network integration efforts remains the primary company-specific catalyst for options positioning.
What the options market is pricing
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| September 16, 2026 | |
| Expiry used | September 18, 2026 (2 days out) |
| Spot | $308.26 |
| ATM straddle | $6.82 |
| Implied move | ±2.21% ($301.45 to $315.07) |
| ATM implied vol | 50.8% |
| Put/call open interest | 0.68 |
| Max pain | $320 |
| Net dealer gamma | +$3mn per 1% move, LONG GAMMA |
| Heaviest call strike above spot | $340 (4,321 contracts) |
| Heaviest put strike below spot | $180 (584 contracts) |
| Street EPS estimate | $4.05 |
| Street revenue estimate | $22.59bn |
Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress FDX between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.
How the stock has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026, Mar 19 | +2.60% |
| Q4 2025, Dec 18 | +2.33% |
| Q2 2025, Sep 18 | +2.64% |
| Q1 2025, Jun 24 | -3.15% |
| Q4 2024, Mar 20 | -6.79% |
| Q3 2024, Sep 19 | -14.60% |
Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 5.35%, with 3 higher and 3 lower. The best was +2.64% and the worst -14.60%. Options are asking ±2.21%, which is 3.14 points cheaper than the realised average, the premium buyer's case.
Where the stock is trading
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot | $308.26 |
| 52-week range | $180.80 to $345.37 |
| Position in that range | 77% |
| From the 52-week high | -10.7% |
| From the 52-week low | +70.5% |
| Past week | -1.9% |
| Past month | -7.9% |
| Past three months | -9.0% |
| 50-day average | $318.92 |
| 200-day average | $294.55 |
RSI reads 52, state neutral, bullish divergence on the daily, regime downtrend.
How the options market is pricing it
The September 18, 2026 straddle marks $301.45 to $315.07 as the range the options market is paying for into the print, with ATM implied vol at 51% set to drain the morning after. A reaction inside that band hands the edge to premium sellers; a break outside it rewards premium buyers. Historically FDX has moved 5.35% on earnings against the ±2.21% now implied, so the market is pricing this print cheaper than the recent average. Which side of that trade is right depends on the number, the guidance and where positioning unwinds.
Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for FDX before the print.
Data as of September 16, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.
Related: FDX options memo