Live updates

Aug 20 — ATM implied vol 78.5% to 186.8%; net dealer gamma $-17mn to $-81mn. The straddle now prices ±5.03% with WMT at $114.30 and dealers short gamma.

Aug 19 — WMT's implied move for August 20, 2026 earnings rose from 4.88% to 5.14%, with ATM implied volatility increasing from 60.7% to 78.5%, indicating a significantly larger expected price swing.

Aug 18 — Ahead of August 20, 2026 WMT earnings, ATM implied volatility rose from 55.6% to 60.7%, and net dealer gamma improved from negative $16 million to negative $1 million, now implying a 4.88% move.

Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 48.2% to 55.6%; net dealer gamma $-8mn to $-16mn. The straddle now prices ±4.95% with WMT at $115.27 and dealers short gamma.

Walmart Inc. reports Q2 2027 results on August 20, 2026, before open. The August 21, 2026 straddle is priced at $5.75, an implied move of ±5.03% against an average realised reaction of 4.94% over the last 6 prints. The stock trades at $114.30, -15.4% from its 52-week high, with dealers short gamma and max pain at $117.

What the market will be watching

US comparable sales. Management guidance for Q2 CY2026 year-on-year sales increase.

Those are the lines the desk marks against. A beat that clears them without a guidance cut is what the short gamma dealer book is set up for, and a miss on any single one is usually enough to send WMT to the edge of the $108.55 to $120.05 band.

What the options market is pricing

Dealers sit short gamma into the print, so their hedging chases direction. A surprise in either tail gets amplified rather than absorbed.

How the stock has reacted before

Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 4.94%, with 3 higher and 3 lower. The best was +4.68% and the worst -8.87%. Options are asking ±5.03%, which is 0.09 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.

Where the stock is trading

Unusual open interest

Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.

The trade framing

Buying the straddle needs WMT to clear $120.05 or break $108.55 to pay. Selling it collects $5.75 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 187% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $108.55 and $120.05 or a debit spread pointed at $120, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.

Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for WMT before the print.

Data as of August 20, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.

Read the live preview on The NYC Memo, refreshed every morning as the implied move moves off ±5.03%.

Visit The NYC Memo. Home · Memos · News

Research and analytics, not investment advice.

Live updates

Aug 19 — ADI's implied move into its August 19, 2026 earnings rose from ±6.21% to ±6.46%, suggesting increased volatility, with ATM implied vol moving from 78.1% to 91.1% and spot dropping from $390.28 to $376.63.

Aug 18 — ADI's August 19, 2026 earnings saw the implied move decrease to ±6.21% from ±6.54% and ATM implied volatility rise to 78.1% from 70.4%, while max pain shifted to $385 from $382.5 and net dealer gamma is now $-5.44 million from $5 million, indicating potential for higher price volatility.

Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 62.2% to 70.4%; max pain $380 to $382.5; put/call open interest 1.25 to 1.10. The straddle now prices ±6.54% with ADI at $389.39 and dealers long gamma.

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is scheduled to report its Q3 2026 earnings on August 19, 2026, before the open. Analysts forecast earnings per share at $3.37 on revenue of $4.0bn. The options market, using the August 21, 2026 expiry, implies a price move of 6.46% by the end of the week, suggesting a trading range of $352.30 to $400.96. This implied move is slightly higher than the average realised reaction of 5.27% over seven previous earnings prints.

With the current spot price at $376.63, options dealers are positioned long gamma. This dealer lean often suggests that market makers will act as price stabilizers into the print, buying dips and selling rallies. Out of the seven past earnings events, the stock has moved higher three times and lower four times. The put/call open interest ratio stands at 1.24.

What the market will be watching

Adjusted EPS. Adjusted EPS; consensus reflects a 64.30% year-over-year growth estimate.

Revenue. Represents the mean estimate from 26 analysts; company guidance range is $3.8B - $4.0B.

On August 19, 2026, the market will closely examine Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Q3 2026 results. Street expectations for Adjusted EPS are $3.37 and for Revenue are $3.96B. Investors will focus on the demand trend across key segments and any indications of margin and cost pressure. The company's guidance for the rest of the year will be crucial for assessing future performance. Any specific commentary regarding inventory levels or new product cycles will also inform trading decisions.

What the options market is pricing

Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress ADI between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.

How the stock has reacted before

Across the last 7 prints the average absolute reaction is 5.27%, with 3 higher and 4 lower. The best was +10.72% and the worst -7.27%. Options are asking ±6.46%, which is 1.19 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.

Where the stock is trading

Unusual open interest

Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.

The trade framing

Buying the straddle needs ADI to clear $400.96 or break $352.30 to pay. Selling it collects $24.32 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 91% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $352.30 and $400.96 or a debit spread pointed at $410, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.

Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for ADI before the print.

Data as of August 19, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.

Read the live preview on The NYC Memo, refreshed every morning as the implied move moves off ±6.46%.

Visit The NYC Memo. Home · Memos · News

Research and analytics, not investment advice.

Live updates

Aug 19 — The implied move for TJX earnings on August 19, 2026 tightened from 4.58% to 4.04%, implying less expected volatility, while net dealer gamma shifted from $-1 million to $34 million and put/call open interest dropped from 1.09 to 0.35.

Aug 18 — Ahead of TJX earnings on August 19, 2026, ATM implied volatility rose from 52.0% to 54.2%, while max pain shifted from $155 to $152.5, implying a potential 4.58% price move for the stock.

Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 46.2% to 52.0%; put/call open interest 0.88 to 1.06. The straddle now prices ±4.48% with TJX at $152.11 and dealers short gamma.

TJX Companies, Inc. (The) is set to report its Q2 2027 earnings on August 19, 2026, before the market open. Analysts estimate earnings per share at $1.20 and revenue at $15.3bn. The current spot price for TJX is $150.85, reflecting a -11.3% decline from its 52-week high and a -3.1% drop over the past month. Options traders are pricing in an implied move of 4.04% around this earnings event, leading to an implied range of $144.76 to $156.94 for the August 21, 2026 expiry.

This anticipated move of 4.04% is higher than the average realised reaction of 2.38% observed over 7 past earnings prints. Historically, TJX has moved higher 6 times and lower 1 time following these reports. Dealer positioning shows a lean towards long gamma, suggesting that options market makers may absorb directional price swings, potentially dampening volatility immediately after the announcement.

What the market will be watching

Adjusted EPS. Zacks Consensus Estimate ($1.18) vs. Most Accurate Estimate ($1.20) suggests a likely beat; unit: Adjusted EPS.

Revenue. Reflects an expected 5.1% year-over-year increase.

On August 19, 2026, the market will scrutinize TJX Companies' Q2 2027 results, focusing on whether the company meets or exceeds Street expectations for Adjusted EPS of $1.18 and Revenue of $15.14B. Investors will be observing demand trends across its store banners, looking for insights into consumer spending habits and traffic. Key operating drivers include any signs of margin expansion or contraction and how the company is managing cost pressures in the current environment. Crucially, attention will turn to the full-year guidance provided, which will shape expectations for future performance and any specific company initiatives impacting the outlook.

What the options market is pricing

Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress TJX between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.

How the stock has reacted before

Across the last 7 prints the average absolute reaction is 2.38%, with 6 higher and 1 lower. The best was +5.02% and the worst -3.97%. Options are asking ±4.04%, which is 1.66 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.

Where the stock is trading

Unusual open interest

Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.

The trade framing

Buying the straddle needs TJX to clear $156.94 or break $144.76 to pay. Selling it collects $6.10 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 56% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $144.76 and $156.94 or a debit spread pointed at $152.5, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.

Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for TJX before the print.

Data as of August 19, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.

Read the live preview on The NYC Memo, refreshed every morning as the implied move moves off ±4.04%.

Visit The NYC Memo. Home · Memos · News

Research and analytics, not investment advice.

Live updates

Aug 19 — LOW's implied move for August 19, 2026 earnings tightened from ±4.83% to ±4.30%, with ATM implied volatility decreasing from 60.7% to 55.1%, max pain rising to $215, and net dealer gamma shifting from $4mn to $-8mn.

Aug 18 — Lowe's implied move for its August 19, 2026 earnings fell from ±5.13% to ±4.83%, suggesting options traders now expect a smaller price swing of $10.42 from the $215.81 spot price.

Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 50.0% to 58.0%. The straddle now prices ±5.13% with LOW at $218.47 and dealers long gamma.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is scheduled to report its Q2 2027 earnings on August 19, 2026, before the open. Analysts anticipate earnings per share of $4.29 on revenue of $26.5bn. The current spot price is $215.64. The options market is currently pricing in an implied move of 4.30% for the August 21, 2026 expiry, suggesting a post-earnings range of $206.37 to $224.91. This implied move, based on a straddle cost of $9.27, is more than twice the average realized reaction of 1.78% observed over six prior earnings prints.

Dealers are leaning short gamma into this report, which typically indicates a potential for increased volatility and larger price swings as they rebalance their positions. Historically, Lowe's stock has moved lower in five out of six past earnings reactions. The current put-call open interest ratio is 1.15, and the max pain point for the expiring options is $215.

What the market will be watching

On August 19, 2026, the market will assess Lowe's Companies, Inc. Q2 2027 results for insights into demand trends for both Do-It-Yourself and Pro customers. Investors will scrutinize the company's ability to manage costs and maintain margins amidst various pressures. Guidance for the remainder of fiscal year 2027 will be a key determinant of market reaction, reflecting expectations for home improvement spending and economic conditions. Analysts will also look for updates on Lowe's strategic initiatives and their impact on future performance.

What the options market is pricing

Dealers sit short gamma into the print, so their hedging chases direction. A surprise in either tail gets amplified rather than absorbed.

How the stock has reacted before

Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 1.78%, with 1 higher and 5 lower. The best was +1.28% and the worst -5.10%. Options are asking ±4.30%, which is 2.52 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.

Where the stock is trading

Unusual open interest

Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.

The trade framing

Buying the straddle needs LOW to clear $224.91 or break $206.37 to pay. Selling it collects $9.27 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 55% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $206.37 and $224.91 or a debit spread pointed at $235, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.

Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for LOW before the print.

Data as of August 19, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.

Read the live preview on The NYC Memo, refreshed every morning as the implied move moves off ±4.30%.

Visit The NYC Memo. Home · Memos · News

Research and analytics, not investment advice.

Live updates

Aug 19 — Today, ATM implied volatility for TGT earnings on August 19, 2026 moved from 89.4% to 102.6%, max pain shifted from $145 to $147, net dealer gamma went from $4mn to $-3mn, and put/call open interest increased from 1.04 to 1.20, implying a 7.06% price move.

Aug 18 — Today, TGT's ATM implied volatility increased from 77.3% to 89.4%, with spot moving from $154.48 to $151.01, and max pain from $143 to $145, as put/call open interest rose from 0.88 to 1.04, reflecting a 7.07% implied move into earnings.

Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 67.8% to 77.3%; max pain $140 to $143. The straddle now prices ±6.93% with TGT at $154.48 and dealers long gamma.

Target Corporation (TGT) will report its Q2 2027 earnings on August 19, 2026, before the market opens. Options traders are currently pricing in an implied move of 7.06% for the August 21, 2026 expiry, with a straddle cost of $10.76. This implied range of $141.71 to $163.25 significantly exceeds the average realized reaction of 4.08% from the past 6 prints, where the stock moved lower 5 times and higher 1 time.

The options market is asking for a larger-than-average post-earnings move. Dealers are currently leaning short gamma, suggesting that an exaggerated price movement after the print could force them to buy into strength or sell into weakness to re-hedge their positions. This dynamic could amplify the stock's direction once the earnings are released.

What the market will be watching

Adjusted EPS. Zacks Consensus Estimate for Adjusted EPS; Wall Street consensus elsewhere cited at $1.93 (Estimize) and $2.34 (Estimize Wall St mean).

Revenue. Zacks Consensus Estimate; high estimate of $26.46B and low of $25.50B.

On August 19, 2026, the market will scrutinize Target Corporation's Q2 2027 results, with Street expectations set at Adjusted EPS of $2.26 and Revenue of $26.10B. Beyond these figures, investors will be keenly focused on demand trends, particularly discerning any shifts in consumer spending patterns. Commentary on margin performance and persistent cost pressures will also be critical. Market reaction will further hinge on management's guidance for the remainder of the year and updates on any company-specific initiatives aimed at driving growth or efficiency.

What the options market is pricing

Dealers sit short gamma into the print, so their hedging chases direction. A surprise in either tail gets amplified rather than absorbed.

How the stock has reacted before

Across the last 6 prints the average absolute reaction is 4.08%, with 1 higher and 5 lower. The best was +8.65% and the worst -7.88%. Options are asking ±7.06%, which is 2.98 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.

Where the stock is trading

Unusual open interest

Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.

The trade framing

Buying the straddle needs TGT to clear $163.25 or break $141.71 to pay. Selling it collects $10.76 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 103% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $141.71 and $163.25 or a debit spread pointed at $165, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.

Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for TGT before the print.

Data as of August 19, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.

Read the live preview on The NYC Memo, refreshed every morning as the implied move moves off ±7.06%.

Visit The NYC Memo. Home · Memos · News

Research and analytics, not investment advice.

Live updates

Aug 18 — Ahead of HD earnings on August 18, 2026, ATM implied volatility rose from 47.2% to 49.6%, indicating an increased expected move of 4.42%. Net dealer gamma moved from $0mn to $15mn, with put/call open interest also increasing from 0.77 to 0.92.

Aug 17 — ATM implied vol 41.5% to 47.2%. The straddle now prices ±4.31% with HD at $338.86 and dealers long gamma.

Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) is scheduled to report its Q2 2027 earnings before the market opens on August 18, 2026. Analysts expect an EPS of $4.88 and revenue of $48.7bn. With the stock trading at $337.88, the options market is currently pricing a 4.42% implied move, suggesting an implied range between $322.95 to $352.81 for the August 21, 2026 expiry.

This anticipated move is notably higher than the average realised reaction of 1.76% from the past five prints. Dealer positioning shows a lean towards long gamma, indicating that the market may experience increased volatility around the earnings release. The put/call open interest ratio stands at 0.92, while max pain is identified at $340.

What the market will be watching

US comparable sales. Aligns with reaffirmed FY2026 guidance; market recovery scenario envisions +4% to +5%.

On August 18, 2026, the market will scrutinize Home Depot's Q2 2027 results for signs of demand trends in the housing and home improvement sectors. Investors will closely watch operating margin performance and any commentary on cost pressures, as these factors directly impact profitability. Crucially, the market will assess the company's outlook for the remainder of the year. Street expectations for US comparable sales are flat to +2.0%, and how HD performs against this range will be a significant driver of market reaction. Any company-specific updates on strategic initiatives or competitive dynamics will also inform trader sentiment.

What the options market is pricing

Dealers sit long gamma into the print, which means their hedging leans against the move and tends to compress HD between catalysts. That damping disappears the moment the number crosses the tape.

How the stock has reacted before

Across the last 5 prints the average absolute reaction is 1.76%, with 3 higher and 2 lower. The best was +3.59% and the worst -2.25%. Options are asking ±4.42%, which is 2.66 points richer than the realised average, the premium seller's case.

Where the stock is trading

Unusual open interest

Those are the strikes where positioning built fastest relative to their own history. They mark the levels the tape is most likely to defend or chase after the print.

The trade framing

Buying the straddle needs HD to clear $352.81 or break $322.95 to pay. Selling it collects $14.94 and keeps most of it if the reaction stays inside that band and vol drains, which is what the 50% ATM implied vol is set up to do the morning after. Defined-risk versions, an iron condor outside $322.95 and $352.81 or a debit spread pointed at $360, cap the crush risk that naked premium carries.

Read the mechanics behind the crush in our earnings volatility guide, and pull the live memo for HD before the print.

Data as of August 18, 2026 from the live option chain, exchange price history and SEC-dated earnings reactions. This is research, not investment advice.

Read the live preview on The NYC Memo, refreshed every morning as the implied move moves off ±4.42%.

Visit The NYC Memo. Home · Memos · News

Research and analytics, not investment advice.