WMT (WMT) options memo

Walmart Inc. Down 4.8% This Week, Trails SPY by 9 Points

The Read

WMT is down 0.39% today at $115.27.

Options traders lean neutral into 2026-08-14, and neutral further out.

A move through $112.58 would change how dealers hedge this stock.

Key numbers

• Spot: $115.27
• Lean: neutral-to-bearish near-term, with options market showing split positioning across timeframes
• Nearest expiry: Fri 8/28
• Implied move: 1.3%
• ATM implied volatility: 25.2%
• Max pain: $105.00
• Pin strike: $110.00
• Gamma flip: $103.89
• Dealer positioning: SHORT GAMMA
• Call wall: $105.00
• Put wall: $99.00
• Put/call open interest: 0.745

Signals

• Options: The options market is sending conflicting signals depending on the timeframe. Over the next 1–9 days, bullish bets outnumber bearish bets — for every 100 upside positions there are only 51–55 downside positions, and the options market is clustered around $116–$120, above today's $113.26 price. However, at 30 and 51 days out, the ratio flips sharply: bearish bets nearly triple bullish bets at the 30-day window, with activity concentrated around $105–$111 — below current price. Option pricing is elevated relative to recent norms (34.5% implied volatility on tomorrow's expiry), meaning near-term options are expensive.
• Price action: Walmart Inc. trades at $113.26, off 4.82% this week and 16.2% below its 52-week high, while lagging the S&P 500 by 8.87 percentage points year-to-date. On an annual basis the stock is nearly flat (+0.44% YTD), meaning this week's decline erased essentially all of 2026's gains. The underperformance relative to both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq suggests selling pressure is concentrated in Walmart specifically, not a broad market move.
• Fundamentals: Walmart Inc. carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.5x — roughly double the 16–19x multiples of peers Target, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and BJ's, and below only Costco at 47x. The market is pricing in significantly faster or more durable growth than most of its retail peers, while the company's net profit margin of 3.13% leaves little room for error. Post-earnings drift has been positive in 2 of the last 4 reports (averaging +4.5% in the week after), suggesting buyers have historically supported the stock following prints.
• News: 43 news items over the past 14 days reflect a mixed headline environment. The highest-impact story (score 9) is an SPS Commerce asset sale — a supply-chain software deal that signals ongoing retail ecosystem consolidation. A Walton Family Holdings Trust sale of $200.7 million in Walmart Inc. shares on June 2 is the most directly company-relevant item; insider selling at this scale is a factual data point that the founding family reduced exposure near current prices. The overall news cluster leans toward external industry developments rather than Walmart-specific operational catalysts.